Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?

Key actors (Mojtaba Khamenei, IRGC/security apparatus, regime officials) have strong, consistent disincentives to expose him publicly due to assassination risks and U.S.-Iran tensions; they have maintained total avoidance of dated/live appearances since March 2026, with only undated videos released in early August that fail market rules. Recent behavior (last 90 days) shows zero shift toward visibility, and base rates of such a high-profile figure suddenly appearing in 13 days amid active conflict are near-zero. Low-friction trigger exists in theory but is blocked by aligned incentives against it, confirming No as near-certain.

Rules require a dated, authentic photo/video taken and released after market open (Jun 23) with credible consensus confirmation; the Aug 10 undated state-media clip explicitly fails this per enrichment and reporting. No sightings or qualifying media have occurred since appointment, and security context makes a qualifying appearance in the final 13 days structurally improbable. Smart-money NO lean (0.98) aligns with rules-based default to No absent verifiable evidence.

Market at 97% No with $423k volume, tight implied spreads, and 1w price drift of Yes down 4.8pp on healthy flow. Smart-money whales overwhelmingly on No ($71k stake vs $717 on Yes, 0.98 confidence), consistent with no qualifying dated public footage since the Aug 10 undated clip. No recent news of any authentic, time-stamped appearance that would move the market; microstructure supports riding the consensus to resolution.