Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

Mojtaba Khamenei and the Iranian regime have shown a consistent 4+ month pattern of deliberate avoidance of public appearances since March 2026, relying solely on written/audio statements amid reported severe injuries and security risks from ongoing conflict; no recent (last 30-90 days) actions or statements indicate a shift toward visibility by July 15. Key decision-makers (Khamenei, IRGC/security apparatus) face strong disincentives to risk exposure, with no mechanical catalysts (e.g., scheduled Assembly sessions) forcing an appearance in the next 11 days. Base rate of sudden verified public sightings after prolonged absence is near-zero, supporting No at 90¢.

Rules require new authentic photo/video (incl. digital/live) taken and released by July 15 ET with credible consensus confirmation; no such appearance has occurred since March 2026 appointment per all reporting through July 4, and security/health concerns plus explicit statements (e.g., won't attend father's July funeral) make one in the remaining 11 days unlikely. Market's 11% Yes price aligns with P(Yes) <=10% needed for >=90% certainty on No; no resolver updates or attribution gaps apply.

Market at 90% No with $308k volume and 1w price action showing Yes dropping 15pp (No strengthening) on healthy flow; order book implied tight given volume. Smart-money whales lean NO ($22.8k stake vs $7.7k on Yes) though only at 0.41 confidence, providing mild alignment rather than opposition. No thin-book signals, stale price, or whale flow against the 90% consensus side.