Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Deadline of June 16 has passed with no release of the agreement text, per multiple credible sources confirming it remains unreleased as of June 16-17. Key actors (US/Iran officials, Vance) have incentives and stated plans to release around the June 19 signing ceremony, not before the deadline. No behavioral pattern or capability exists for retroactive pre-deadline release; base rate of last-minute leaks on such diplomatic texts is near zero.

The market resolves Yes only if any portion of the actual verbatim text of the June 14 agreement is made widely available by 11:59 PM ET on June 16 (via official release, leak, or verbatim publication confirmed by consensus reporting). Multiple credible sources (CNN, NPR, NYT, Guardian, ISW) confirm no such text release occurred by the deadline; descriptions of contents or joint statements do not qualify. The deadline has passed with the market now post-deadline, so it resolves No per the explicit rules. Analyst recommendation aligns exactly with this outcome.

Market microstructure strongly supports the analyst's Buy No thesis: No trades at 93¢ on $141k volume with tight implied consensus, one-day price action consistent with post-deadline realization, and smart-money whales net long No (even at low 0.29 confidence). Web confirmation shows zero qualifying text release by the June 16 11:59 PM ET cutoff across all credible sources, locking in the outcome before the June 18 close. No whale opposition, no thin-book issues, and no contradictory sibling flow.