Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

King Abdullah II has no demonstrated incentive, role, or recent pattern (last 90 days) of signing US-Iran agreements; he has only issued public statements on security guarantees and joined consultative calls with other leaders. The June 19 Geneva ceremony involves US (Vance/Witkoff) and Iranian (Ghalibaf/Araghchi) signatories with Pakistani mediation, not Jordan. Base rate for this specific actor signing any binding US-Iran deal by July 31 is near zero given procedural and diplomatic realities.

Rules require King Abdullah II to personally sign (in official capacity) a written US-Iran agreement by 11:59 PM ET July 31; he may sign for any party but the US and Iran must both be parties. Current framework/MoU (announced June 14-15) has signing ceremony June 19 in Geneva mediated by Pakistan/Qatar/Saudi/Turkey with no role or mention for Jordan/Abdullah; follow-on nuclear talks run to mid-August. No credible reporting or official info indicates Abdullah's involvement as signatory, so No is the unambiguous outcome with P(Yes) well below 10%.

Low-volume market ($15k total) opened days ago with No at 85¢; recent framework announcement and planned June 19 Geneva signing involve US/Iran officials plus mediators like Pakistan/Qatar but zero credible reports of King Abdullah II as signatory. Smart-money whales lean No (0.64 conf, higher-stake side) with no opposing flow or whale fight. Price action and thin book are consistent with near-certain No outcome by July 31 deadline; 85¢ No satisfies >=90% certainty bar on this single bet.