Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Mojtaba Khamenei (now Supreme Leader) has incentive and pattern only to approve deals internally via messages/couriers while remaining hidden; no historical or recent behavior (last 30 days) shows him personally signing any agreement. Framework MoU signing on/around June 19 in Geneva will involve Araghchi, Witkoff or mediators, not Mojtaba. Base rate for him signing a US-Iran deal by July 31 is effectively zero given his role and the 60-day nuclear follow-on timeline.

Rules require Mojtaba Khamenei to personally sign (in official capacity) a written US-Iran agreement by the deadline; the June 14-15 framework announcement and June 19 Geneva ceremony involve other signatories and leave nuclear issues for later talks, with zero credible reporting or official indication of his involvement. Primary sources (official gov info) or consensus reporting would be needed for Yes, neither of which exists or is plausible before July 31. Smart-money NO lean aligns with the strict literal criteria and absence of any qualifying event.

Market at 4.9¢ Yes / 96.8¢ No with $15.8k volume and tight recent price action; smart-money whales (mr.ozi et al., $2.8k stake, $1.5M lifetime PnL) are heavily on No at 1.0 confidence, consistent with the thesis. Sibling market prices Mojtaba at only 4% and framework news does not involve him signing. No whale opposition, no thin-book issues, and price reflects real consensus against the low-probability event.