Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?

Key actors (Trump, Mojtaba Khamenei, Iranian regime) lack aligned incentives or demonstrated recent behavior for an in-person meeting by June 30; Trump has only offered conditional rhetoric tied to a deal, while Iran has publicly dismissed the idea as unrealistic amid ongoing but unresolved negotiations. No credible reports or procedural steps indicate any such encounter is feasible in the remaining 12 days, consistent with near-zero base rates for US-Iran leader meetings. Consensus-priced No at 98.7% faces no plausible reversal trigger.

Rules require an in-person meeting with direct interaction (words/handshake/etc.) confirmed by consensus of credible reporting between June 4 and June 30 11:59 PM ET. No such meeting has occurred or been credibly reported; all coverage is limited to Trump's conditional statements of willingness contingent on a future deal. With 12 days remaining and zero catalysts or scheduling signals, the event is structurally impossible under the literal criteria, defaulting to No.

Smart-money whales heavily aligned with No ($8.9k stake vs $99 on Yes, 0.97 confidence), consistent with the 1.4% Yes price and $34k volume on this near-term bin. No price drift or volume spike challenging the consensus in the 14 days since open; spread and liquidity support a real market view that no meeting occurs by June 30.