Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

House Republican leadership (Speaker Johnson et al.) and the Trump administration have repeatedly blocked or canceled votes on qualifying war-powers measures since February 2026, with only minimal GOP defections insufficient to overcome the majority; their incentive is to preserve executive flexibility on Iran operations rather than cede authority via binding legislation. Senate advancement of similar bills has been irrelevant because identical passage in both chambers is required and the House has shown no procedural movement toward it in the last 30 days. High-friction legislative process plus consistent recent behavior and zero historical base rate of success make passage by the 27-day deadline implausible.

Rules require identical qualifying bill (explicitly limiting military action) finally passed by both chambers by 11:59 PM ET June 30; non-binding or non-identical measures excluded, with official records + credible consensus as sources. Enrichment and searches confirm Senate advancement in May but repeated House blocks/cancellations due to partisan gaps, with no identical passage or active path in the 27-day window. No RESOLVER UPDATE overrides; default-No applies to ambiguity, and no plausible rule-based flip exists.

Consensus No at 96.6% with $11K volume since May 29 open, tight effective spread, and 1d price stable (+0.1pp). Smart money strongly aligned (NO whales $2,249 stake incl. rank-63 elmcap2 vs YES $1 tiny stake, conf 1.00). No opposing flow, thin-book flags, or staleness signals; microstructure fully supports riding the 96%+ consensus hold to June 30 resolution.