Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?

Election occurred May 31; multiple independent sources (Wikipedia, NYT, Al Jazeera, official registry) confirm Cepeda's official first-round share at precisely 40.90%, which falls inside the 40-45% bin with no recounts or certification changes reported that would alter it. Key actors (electoral authorities, observers) have already delivered the outcome via standard tallies; no plausible post-election process can mechanically shift the bracket before final certification. Base rate of vote-share reversals after full count is near zero.

Ladder bin 40-45% resolves Yes on exact reported share of 40.9% per official tallies (no recount initiated, results known well before Dec 31 2026 fallback). Neighbor bins trade at 1% each, eliminating plausible flip risk. Rules require only Cepeda's personal valid-vote share (not coalition) and higher bracket on exact ties; all criteria met with no attribution or evidence gaps.

Yes priced at 98.9¢ with smart-money whales (4 profitable, $2.2K stake, top lifetime PnL $877K) heavily aligned on Yes (0.98 confidence); weekly volume $7.5K–$28K and 1w price jump +60pp to consensus level show real post-election flow confirming 40.9% result. No opposing whales, tight implied spread, no stale thin-book signals. Microstructure fully consistent with the 40-45% bin.