Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?

The announcement deadline of May 31, 2026 has already passed with only informal rhetorical references from Trump (March speeches and Truth Social maps) and zero evidence of any official US commitment or announcement. Key decision-maker Trump has shown no incentive or procedural steps toward formal renaming of an international strait, consistent with base rates of zero such unilateral changes. Low-friction trigger never fired by cutoff, so No resolves with near-certainty.

The resolution rules explicitly require a public announcement by Trump (or consensus credible reporting) that the US will *officially* refer to the strait as 'Strait of Trump' (or equivalent) by May 31 2026 11:59 PM ET. All available evidence shows only informal/humorous references in March 2026 speeches and Truth Social maps, with no executive order, BGN directive, or formal US commitment. The May 31 cutoff has passed without any qualifying event, so the market must resolve No per the literal criteria; no plausible late flip remains possible.

Market at 98.9¢ No with $8k volume and 1w price stable; smart-money whales (4 profitable, $2.5k stake, lifetime PnL >$500k) all aligned on No at 1.0 confidence with no opposing flow. No recent news or price action indicates any official US renaming announcement (only prior informal jokes/maps from Mar-Apr 2026). Thin but real consensus on an absurd outcome with no catalysts left before deadline.