Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

Key decision-makers (Iranian security apparatus, Mojtaba Khamenei, regime officials) have strong, consistent incentives and demonstrated behavior to keep him hidden for security/health reasons, with zero verified public appearances (photo/video/live) since his March 2026 appointment—only written statements. Recent (last 30 days) reporting confirms ongoing absence and explicit advice against any image/voice release. Low base rate of sudden visibility in 11 days; low-friction Yes trigger exists but actors lack any incentive or pattern to trigger it before deadline.

Rules require new authentic photo/video (including digital/live) of Mojtaba Khamenei taken and released by June 30 ET, with credible reporting consensus; archival/reused/AI/staged material excluded. Enrichment and multiple credible reports through early June 2026 confirm only written statements and audio read by others, with no verified public appearances since appointment amid health/security issues. No evidence of qualifying footage exists post-market start, and the 11-day window makes a sudden appearance improbable given the established pattern.

No 94¢ with $275k volume and tight implied spreads reflects real consensus; recent price action shows Yes drifting lower (-1pp 1d, -6.5pp 1w) on healthy flow with no reversal. Smart-money whales lean NO (higher stake on that side) at 0.41 confidence, consistent with thesis and no opposing high-confidence flow. Searches confirm zero verified public photo/video appearances through mid-June, aligning with the near-certain No outcome before the 11-day deadline.