Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?

Netanyahu and IDF leadership have clear incentives to limit operations to southern Lebanon (Litani/Beaufort advances) while pursuing diplomacy and the partial US-mediated ceasefire; no statements or actions in the last 30 days indicate intent to launch a high-cost ground incursion into central Beirut municipality. Hezbollah and Lebanese actors similarly lack incentive to provoke or enable such an escalation. High-friction requirement (visible ground troops + photo/video evidence) plus zero historical base rate of Israeli forces entering Beirut in comparable windows make the No outcome near-certain by June 30.

Rules require confirmed ground-troop entry into Beirut municipality (photo/video or consensus reporting, timed within 48h of deadline) for Yes; current enrichment shows only southern Lebanon ops north of Litani with partial ceasefire and no Beirut entry. No resolver updates override definitions or evidence standard. No is consensus-priced (>97%) with no plausible rule-based flip by June 30 given strict attribution/timing/confirmation requirements.

No at 97.5¢ with Yes drifting lower (-4.3pp weekly) on $17-28k volume; only $25 tiny whale stake on Yes (not a credible opposing signal). Order book/volume signature shows real consensus on No with no aggressive flow against it and no evidence of ground entry into Beirut municipality.