Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Key actors (Khamenei, Iranian FM, Supreme National Security Council) have repeatedly and explicitly denied any agreement to export or surrender the stockpile in the last 30-60 days, consistent with long-standing policy against ceding control. Incentives align against concession: regime survival tied to nuclear leverage, no sanctions relief sufficient to override. High-friction requirement (public pledge of transfer outside Iranian influence) has zero demonstrated movement and base rate of zero analogous Iranian actions in decades; Trump pressure produces rhetoric only, not Iranian compliance.

Rules require a PUBLIC Iranian agreement/pledge (unilateral or joint) for Yes; US 'in principle' claims from May 2026 were immediately and repeatedly denied by Iranian officials, with no consensus of credible reporting confirming any qualifying pledge. Negotiations remain stalled as of early June 2026 with Iran pushing limited interim deals that explicitly avoid uranium concessions, and no active catalyst exists before the July 31 deadline. No RESOLVER UPDATES override the description; smart-money NO lean is consistent with the evidence gap and default-No burden.

Smart money leans strongly NO (0.84 confidence, $37k+ stake vs $3.5k on YES) with no indication of market-maker proxies; volume is real ($291k) and price has been stable/low on YES amid repeated Iranian denials and stalled talks. No recent news flow or price action shows aggressive buying of YES or any credible path to public agreement by July 31. Consensus hold at 81% NO is microstructure-supported.