Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Key actors (Iranian leadership/IRGC, US/Israel, shipping firms) have strong incentives to sustain the blockade amid active fighting and no diplomatic off-ramp; recent statements and behavior (last 90 days) show continued restrictions and attacks rather than de-escalation. Normalizing traffic to ≥60 daily calls requires mine clearance, security guarantees, and commercial risk reversal—high-friction steps that cannot complete in the ~10-day window even if a ceasefire were announced today. Base rates for rapid post-conflict strait reopening are near zero; consensus-priced No at 97% aligns with behavioral reality.

Rules require IMF Portwatch 7-day MA transit calls >=60 on any date from May 26 to June 15; current data shows ~4-5 (MacroMicro/PortWatch through May 31), with ongoing conflict keeping levels at a handful of vessels daily per June 2026 reporting. No data integrity issues or revisions can bridge the gap in the remaining window. Smart money aligns on No; consensus pricing and evidence leave no rule-based path to Yes.

Consensus No at 97.4¢ with $3.46M volume, tight implied spread, and 1w Yes price drift down -5.9pp on healthy flow; smart-money whales overwhelmingly on No ($927k stake, 0.97 confidence) with no opposing flow or thin-book signals. Microstructure fully consistent with near-certain No given 10 days left and no repricing pressure.