Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30?

Anthropic closed its $65B Series H at $965B post-money on May 28 while OpenAI's last round was $852B in March; no new primary rounds, IPOs, or material secondary re-ratings have occurred in the subsequent three weeks. NPM prices for June 30 will therefore reflect the same entrenched gap with negligible chance of reversal before month-end. The 97.5¢ price on Anthropic meets the >90% certainty bar and clears the annualized-return floor for this short-horizon single bet.

Rules specify resolution strictly via NPM June 30 prices (or latest available if delayed), with Anthropic's May 28 $965B post-money round already exceeding OpenAI's $852B March mark by >$100B; no IPOs, mergers, or new primary rounds have occurred or are imminent per the description. NPM data sources are explicitly named and binding, with no revisions or equal-valuation tie possible under current gaps. Smart-money consensus aligns with the recommended Anthropic side and no rule-based flip event exists before the July 4 fallback deadline.

Consensus hold at 97.5% on Anthropic with $32k volume, tight implied spread, and smart-money whales (confidence 0.91) aligned on the YES side. Price action shows mild upward drift (+1.1pp 1d, +2.5pp 1w) consistent with the entrenched valuation gap from May data; no opposing whale flow or thin-book signals. Microstructure supports riding the consensus to the June 30 NPM print.