Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?

Key actors (Trump admin / US military-CIA, Díaz-Canel, Cuban security forces) show zero incentive or recent (last 30-90 days) movement toward US physical custody of the Cuban leader; ongoing diplomacy, public rejections of leadership talks, and absence of any operational signals make a high-friction raid or capture mechanically impossible before June 30. Base rate for such an event in <6 weeks is near zero. Consensus-priced No at 97.7% aligns with behavioral reality; smart-money whales on No are consistent with this.

Rules require explicit US personnel physical custody (not proxies, not voluntary, not mere presence); resolution sources are official US statements or credible consensus reporting. Enrichment and current date confirm zero qualifying signals or operations as of June 4, with only 26 days left and no plausible path to an unannounced detention. No is the unambiguous consensus outcome (97.7¢) with no rule-based flip possible; analyst's Buy No recommendation satisfies all criteria.

Smart money strongly aligned with recommended No side (4 profitable whales, $7.26k stake vs $10 on Yes, confidence 1.00). Volume of $18k since May 18 with only minor 1w drift of -3.1pp on No shows stable consensus, no aggressive flow against, and no thin-book or staleness red flags in a low-event niche market. Price action and whale positioning consistent with near-certain No outcome through June 30.