Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Key actors (Trump admin/AG Blanche, Cuban regime, 95yo Castro) have zero aligned incentive or capability for US personnel to physically detain Castro inside Cuba in the next 26 days; indictment is rhetoric only, no ops or talks underway. High-friction event (armed extraction or equivalent) has never occurred in analogous cases and base rate is near-zero. Smart-money NO whales are correct; analyst's near-certain No thesis holds under behavioral lens.

Rules require physical US personnel custody (detain/arrest/capture) of Castro by 11:59 PM ET June 30; voluntary surrender qualifies but non-US actions or mere presence do not. Indictment exists but Castro remains in Cuba with no US operation, extradition path, or credible reporting of custody as of June 4. No plausible rule-based flip event exists in the 26-day window, so No is unambiguous and meets >=90% certainty bar.

Market microstructure strongly supports Buy No: $348k volume with smart-money whales heavily concentrated on No ($36k stake, 8 profitable wallets, 0.98 confidence) vs tiny Yes exposure; Yes price has drifted lower (-1.2pp 1d, -6.9pp 1w) on real flow with no opposing whale activity or thin-book signals. No correlated bins or credible comments contradict the near-certain No outcome before the tight June 30 window.