U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?

Key decision-makers (Trump admin, Mexican gov under Sheinbaum, CIA/DEA/military) show aligned incentives against direct ground/ kinetic ops on foreign soil due to sovereignty tensions and preference for partner-led or maritime actions; recent 30-90 day behavior (Chihuahua incident limited to logistics, El Mencho op partner-executed, sea strikes only) consistent with no qualifying event. Base rate of confirmed direct US ops in Mexico is near-zero historically. Deadline passed May 31 with zero official confirmation or overwhelming consensus of a qualifying operation, satisfying the low-friction exception for post-deadline consensus No.

Rules require direct U.S. personnel ground participation or kinetic strike on foreign soil (explicitly excluding intel/logistical/advisory roles) confirmed by official U.S. statement or overwhelming consensus reporting; searches and page summary confirm zero qualifying events by the May 31 11:59 PM ET deadline (only maritime ops, partner-led actions with U.S. intel, and non-qualifying support incidents like April Chihuahua). Post-deadline default is No with no plausible flip; this is a high-certainty consensus No trade (>98% priced) with no rule-based ambiguity or evidence gaps.

Market microstructure fully supports the No thesis: Yes price has drifted down sharply (1w -11pp) on the $26k volume since May 15 open, with tight implied spread and no aggressive flow against No. Smart-money whales are heavily concentrated on No ($3.7k stake vs $105 on Yes, 0.94 confidence), consistent with real consensus rather than proxies. No evidence of any qualifying direct US operation by the May 31 deadline in recent reporting, and correlated earlier-date sibling markets resolved No without challenge. Consensus hold at 98.8¢ meets all criteria for approval.