Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Houthis control the relevant action but have shown zero attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea since Oct 2025 and only rhetoric (no capability demonstrated toward full closure) in the last 90 days despite Iran-related tensions; traffic data remains ~20-33 daily transits with no trajectory toward ≤10 MA7. Base rate of sudden effective closure in next 30 days is near-zero given holding US-Iran ceasefire and Houthi restraint. Analyst's Buy No at 94¢ aligns with both data and behavioral patterns; smart-money lean is consistent and not contradicted.

Rules require IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of Bab el-Mandeb 'Arrivals of Ships' ≤10 on any date up to and including 2026-06-30 for Yes; all available data through mid-May 2026 shows values ~30+, with no qualifying drop. No RESOLVER UPDATES override the explicit source and threshold. Smart-money lean on No aligns with data; no plausible path to Yes remains before deadline under literal interpretation.

No at 93.9¢ with $102k volume and 1w price drift strengthening No (-5.9pp on Yes) shows real consensus; IMF PortWatch 7d avg ~31.7 on 5/17 confirms traffic far above threshold with no closure signal. Smart-money whales lean No (0.70 conf, $7.9k stake vs $1.3k on Yes) with no opposing flow or thin-book red flags. Microstructure fully consistent with mispricing thesis on a near-certain No.