Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?

Key decision-makers (President Nicușor Dan and moderate parties like PNL/PSD) have strong incentives to complete coalition talks and form a new government rather than trigger dissolution, given AUR polling strength and Romania's 37-year record of full terms. Constitutional threshold of repeated failed formation attempts has not been approached and cannot be met mechanically by July 31. Recent behavior (ongoing consultations post-May no-confidence vote, explicit rejection of snap elections) shows zero movement toward dissolution; base rate of early dissolution is zero.

Rules require official Romanian government confirmation (or credible consensus reporting) of dissolution of both chambers by 11:59 PM ET July 31; constitutional threshold of repeated failed PM investitures has not been met and ongoing June 2026 consultations show no procedural trigger or incentive for snap dissolution before deadline. No RESOLVER UPDATES override this. Analyst's Buy No side is unambiguously supported with P(win) >>90%.

Consensus hold on No at 94.4% with $70k total volume (meaningful for this market), tight implied spreads, and 4 profitable whales ($384 stake, high lifetime PnL) aligned on No at confidence 1.00. Price action shows minor recent drift consistent with stability (no aggressive flow against No), no thin-book red flags or contradictory sibling activity. Microstructure fully supports riding the consensus.