DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?

Key actors (DOJ/U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, Trump admin) explicitly conditioned any reopening on new facts emerging; none have surfaced in the 30+ days since April 24 closure, and recent behavior shows referral to IG instead. Reopening requires concrete institutional action (official DOJ announcement) that no decision-maker has incentive or demonstrated pattern to execute in the remaining ~35 days. Base rate for rapid reopening without evidence is near zero; consensus-priced No at 97.5% aligns with behavioral reality.

Rules require explicit official DOJ announcement (or consensus credible reporting) of reopening/new criminal investigation or formal charges/indictment by 11:59 PM ET June 30; statements of consideration or internal referrals do not qualify. Investigation closed April 24 with explicit caveat that restart needs new facts; no such facts or developments reported since market open May 4. No plausible rule-based flip event exists in the ~35-day window, so consensus-priced No (97.5%) meets >=90% certainty bar with no ambiguity or evidence gaps.

Consensus No at 97.5% with stable 1w price action (-0.1pp), neutral smart money (zero whales either side), and no opposing flow or sibling-bin contradictions. Total volume ~$7-38K since May 4 is modest but sufficient to show the price is unchallenged on a near-zero-probability event with no new facts or catalysts; microstructure supports riding the hold rather than indicating illusory consensus or thin-book risk.