Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win fewer than 21 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?

Election occurred May 17 2026 with official results of exactly 28 seats for PSOE-A (well above 21); no remaining human decision-makers, incentives, or procedures can alter the count. Base rate for post-election seat changes in Spanish regional contests is near-zero once >99% counted. Analyst's Buy No side aligns with fixed factual outcome at ~100% certainty.

The market is the <21 ladder bin. Election occurred 2026-05-17 with confirmed 28 PSOE-A seats per credible reporting and official tallies (no ambiguity). Rules require exact match to this bin for Yes; 28 seats triggers No. Results known well before Dec 31 2026 fallback. Analyst's Buy No side is unambiguously correct with 100% certainty; no rule-based flip possible.

Election results confirmed at 28 seats (well outside <21 bin); No priced at 98.6¢ with volume and price action consistent post-election. Smart-money whale on Yes holds only $1 stake (negligible, not a credible signal against). No thin book, stale price, or contradictory sibling-bin flow detected.