Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Key actors (PM Péter Magyar + Tisza supermajority) have incentive to remove Sulyok but announced on June 1 a constitutional-amendment route explicitly expected to take ~1 month; Sulyok has refused and appealed externally with no voluntary exit. HIGH-FRICTION legislative process (multiple readings, votes, possible court review) cannot complete in the remaining 18 days per all credible reporting. Base rate of presidential removal via amendment in <3 weeks is zero; recent behavior (post-May 31 deadline) shows deliberate procedural pacing, not acceleration.

Rules require either actual cessation of office or an official announcement of resignation/removal by June 30 ET; the constitutional amendment process announced June 1 is explicitly stated to require ~1 month and has not produced any such announcement or formal action as of June 12. No voluntary resignation has occurred and credible reporting confirms Sulyok remains in office with the timeline precluding completion before deadline. Smart-money consensus on No aligns with the formal criteria and absence of any qualifying event.

Smart-money whales (6 profitable, $50k+ stake, $1M+ lifetime PnL) are heavily concentrated on No at 1.00 confidence, matching the analyst side; Yes has zero whale stake. Volume of $472k is substantial with Yes price steadily declining (1w -13.5pp, 1m -53pp), showing real flow toward No rather than stale consensus. No order-book or sibling-bin contradictions visible; microstructure fully supports riding the 90¢ No through the short remaining window.