Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Key actors (shipping firms, insurers, Iran/US govts) have no incentive or capability for a sudden 20x surge in Hormuz transits within 6 days; IMF Portwatch data as of June 14 shows 7-day MA stuck at ~2.6 with ongoing conflict, jamming, and only limited one-off movements post-mid-June deal. Base rates and recent behavior confirm normalization requires months, not days. Smart-money NO lean aligns; analyst's Buy No at 97.4¢ meets certainty bar.

Rules require IMF Portwatch 7-day MA of Strait of Hormuz transit calls ≥60 on any date through June 30; current data (as of June 14) shows MA of ~2.6 with ongoing conflict, GPS jamming, and no recovery visible. Only 6 days remain, making any qualifying spike structurally impossible per the explicit source and timing criteria. Recommended Buy No side is the unambiguous consensus outcome with no rule-based path to Yes.

Massive $32M+ volume, Yes price crashing 44pp over the month to 2.7¢ with healthy downward drift on rising volume, and smart-money whales overwhelmingly aligned on No ($2.8M stake vs $95k on Yes, 0.93 confidence) confirm the microstructure fully supports the No thesis. With only 6 days left and current ~3 daily transits, no realistic path exists for the 7-day average to reach 60; consensus hold is clean with no opposing flow or thin-book issues.