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Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30? | No | 2026-06-30
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Verifying…
echo -n "Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30? | No | 2026-06-30" | shasum -a 256 | cut -c1-8UK Home Office (key decision-maker) revoked Kanye's ETA in April 2026 explicitly citing public-good concerns over antisemitic remarks; no reversal, legal challenge, or new entry signals in the last 30-60 days. Kanye's incentives and recent pattern (festival cancellation, no UK plans announced) align with staying out; UK authorities have zero incentive to lift the ban in the remaining 36 days. High-friction barrier (official policy reversal or court win) makes a Yes outcome mechanically implausible before June 30; base rate of quick re-entry after such bans is near zero.
Rules require physical entry into UK territory (airspace irrelevant); primary sources are official Kanye/UK statements or credible consensus. April 2026 Home Office ETA revocation (explicitly barring entry as not 'conducive to the public good') remains in force with zero reversal, new applications, or visit signals per all reporting through May 2026. No plausible flip-event exists before deadline, satisfying unambiguous support for No at >90% certainty.
Market at ~95% No on only $3.5K total volume since April (<<$5K weekly) with thin liquidity and no meaningful order-book depth; price is stale and untested rather than a real consensus. Smart-money whale (ranked, $69K lifetime PnL) holds tiny $1 position on Yes at 1.00 confidence, a red flag even if low-stake. Recent price action shows minor drift without aggressive flow or volume to support the claimed near-certainty.
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