Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?

House GOP majority (Speaker Johnson et al.) has zero incentive to impeach Trump's Defense Secretary; recent Dem articles (April 2026) are dead on arrival in committee with no GOP co-sponsors or momentum. Base rate for impeaching own cabinet appointee in first 18 months is zero; 36-day window makes procedural passage impossible. High-friction Yes outcome has no plausible actor chain.

Rules require House simple-majority passage of articles by 6/30/2026 ET; only federal info or credible consensus counts. Dem-only filings (H.Res.935 et al., April 2026) remain stalled in Judiciary with zero GOP support or floor action reported through 5/25/2026. No plausible path to majority vote exists in remaining 36 days, satisfying the consensus-No bar with no rule-based flip possible.

Market prices No at 96¢ with $157K volume and tight implied spread; smart-money whales (3 profitable, $635 stake, 0.99 confidence) are heavily aligned on No with no opposing flow. Recent 1m price action shows only minor -1pp drift, consistent with stable consensus rather than aggressive selling against it. High-certainty consensus hold on No meets all microstructure criteria with no red flags on volume, whales, or staleness.