Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

Key decision-makers (Hezbollah Shura Council, Iran) have zero incentive for abrupt leadership change in the next 20 days; Qassem has remained active through May 2026 with public addresses rejecting disarmament. Removal requires concrete internal action or external strike + confirmation, which has no recent precedent or visible catalyst (HIGH friction). Base rate for Hezbollah secretary-general turnover in <3 weeks is near zero; recent behavior shows continuity, not transition.

Rules require verifiable removal (resignation/detention/loss of position) confirmed by Hezbollah official statement or credible reporting consensus; enrichment confirms Qassem's public activity through May 2026 with no subsequent signals of change, and <21 days remain with zero plausible catalysts. No is the consensus side (>90% priced) with no rule-based flip possible before deadline. Smart-money NO lean is consistent and does not contradict.

Market at 91¢ No with $236k volume and tight recent price action (1w +2.5pp); smart money strongly aligned on No (5 whales, $10k stake, 0.97 confidence) vs minimal Yes whale activity. No recent price drift or volume spike against No, and public activity through May 2026 confirms continuity with <20 days left. Microstructure fully consistent with near-certain No resolution.