Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?

Trump has repeatedly and publicly distanced himself from Mojtaba Khamenei (calling him a lightweight/mistake, questioning his survival, routing talks elsewhere) with no countervailing actions or incentives to initiate direct contact in the next 5 weeks; Mojtaba's hardline posture and the zero historical base rate of US-Iran supreme-leader-level calls make a sudden reversal implausible. No procedural or capability barriers exist for a call, but the behavioral pattern and incentives point strongly against it occurring.

Rules require direct verbal interaction (in-person/phone/video) confirmed by consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET June 30, 2026. No such contact has occurred or been signaled as of May 24; Trump has repeatedly stated he has not heard from Mojtaba and questions his status, with negotiations involving other figures. No resolver updates override this; smart-money NO lean aligns with absence of any flip event in the remaining window.

Consensus No at 95¢ with $40k volume, tight implied spread, and 1w/1m price action showing stability or minor drift consistent with no contact. Smart money (incl. high-PnL whale RememberAmalek with $3.8k stake) heavily aligned on No at 0.97 confidence; no opposing whales or thin-book signals. Recent news confirms ongoing indirect negotiations only, with Trump publicly distancing from Mojtaba—no price shock or volume spike against No.