Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei (new Supreme Leader, recovering from injuries in Qom) and the IRGC/regime have zero incentive to arrange a confirmed exit abroad in the next 5 weeks amid active conflict and internal instability; his recent pattern (absent from public view, governing via intermediaries, no travel) and base rates for Iranian leaders in crisis strongly favor staying put. No decision-maker has both motive and capability to produce verifiable departure before the deadline, making the 97¢ No price a high-certainty consensus hold.

Rules require confirmed exit (plane landing abroad or boat to international waters) by 11:59 PM ET June 30 via consensus credible reporting; absent that, defaults to No. No such confirmation exists or is plausible in the remaining window given his domestic governance from Qom/secure sites per multiple May 2026 reports. Smart-money NO lean (0.81) aligns; no resolver updates alter criteria.

Market at 97% No with $149k volume, tight implied spreads, and 1m price drift of -3.8pp on Yes (stable/slightly reinforcing No). Smart-money whales lean NO at 0.81 confidence with $669 stake vs $59 on Yes; no opposing flow or thin-book signals. No recent news of any exit (all reporting places him inside Iran), so microstructure fully consistent with consensus hold on No.