Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Pete Hegseth remains the current U.S. Secretary of Defense as of April 6, 2026, actively making high-profile decisions like firing the Army Chief of Staff and intervening in promotions, with no official announcements or consensus credible reporting of his resignation or removal since the market opened on March 24, 2026. Recent news shows ongoing controversies but no indications of imminent ouster, and his loyalty to Trump suggests stability through June 30, supporting a true probability of 'No' well above 80% while No shares trade at 78¢ for a strong risk-adjusted edge.

Current web searches and official sources confirm Pete Hegseth remains Secretary of Defense/War as of April 6, 2026, actively firing top generals amid the Iran war with no reports of his own resignation, removal, or loss of Trump backing. Market Yes price has ticked up to 25% amid controversies, but lacks concrete evidence of ouster by June 30 per resolution rules (official or consensus reporting), making No undervalued with true probability well above 80% for strong edge.

No credible reports indicate that Pete Hegseth has resigned or been removed as Secretary of Defense before the market's June 30 deadline. The market’s “No” side (78% price) reflects the high likelihood he will remain in office, aligning with the AI’s recommendation to buy No. Therefore, the analysis is accurate and actionable at present.