Iran leadership change by June 30?

Key decision-makers (IRGC commanders, Assembly of Experts, and Mojtaba's inner circle) installed him in March and have spent the last 60+ days consolidating power through leadership adjustments and public statements rather than removing him. Their revealed incentives favor stability amid ongoing conflict and unrest, with zero credible reports of ouster attempts or incapacity severe enough to trigger Article 111 replacement by June 30. Base rates for rapid post-succession purges in Iran are near zero, and recent behavior (May statements and elite signaling) shows active stabilization, not the opposite outcome.

Rules require Mojtaba Khamenei to be removed/detained/prevented from acting as de facto leader (or official announcement thereof) by June 30 ET, resolved via consensus of credible reporting. No such qualifying event has occurred or is credibly reported as imminent; all May 2026 sources confirm his ongoing public statements and institutional role post-March installation. Smart-money NO lean (0.85) aligns with absence of any rule-triggering development, and no plausible flip-event exists before deadline.

No at 90¢ with $1.26M volume, tight implied spread, and 1m price drift of Yes down 6.5pp shows real consensus being reinforced rather than stale. Smart-money whales overwhelmingly on No ($103k stake vs $9k on Yes, 0.85 confidence) with no opposing flow or thin-book signals. Microstructure fully consistent with analyst's Buy No thesis; no whale or volume red flags.