Netanyahu out by June 30?

Netanyahu has zero incentive to resign and is actively consolidating (e.g., comptroller vote, military directives); coalition partners' dissolution push only triggers October elections, not immediate removal. No decision-maker has demonstrated recent behavior or capability for the high-friction steps (Knesset no-confidence or resignation announcement) needed before June 30. Base rate of sudden ouster in 22 days is near zero.

Rules require Netanyahu to cease being PM (or announce resignation/removal) by June 30 ET; official sources or credible consensus are authoritative. As of June 8 2026 he remains incumbent PM with active governance (e.g., June 1 Trump call) and no resignation announcement or removal; dissolution bills point to Sept/Oct elections only. No evidence gap or attribution issue exists, and the 22-day window precludes any qualifying event. Smart-money NO consensus aligns with literal rules.

Market at 98.1¢ No with $5.8M volume, tight implied spreads, and 1m price drift of Yes down 2.5pp shows real consensus being reinforced, not stale. 9 profitable whales hold $308k on No (conf 1.00) with zero on Yes; no opposing flow or thin-book signals. Recent news (Trump-Netanyahu tensions, military ops) has not moved price against No, confirming microstructure aligns with near-zero probability of exit in 22 days.