Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?

No decision-makers (UK/Belgian/Swedish/Israeli police or equivalent) show incentive or procedural trigger to arrest Thunberg in the final 11 days; her June 17 Brussels protest passed without incident and prior 2025 detentions were tied to specific placard violations or flotillas now resolved. Base rate of spontaneous arrest in a quiet 11-day window is near-zero absent new escalation signals. Low-friction nature does not overcome the total absence of catalyst or recent pattern shift toward custody.

Market rules require a qualifying arrest/detention (physical custody, booking, handcuffing, etc.) by law enforcement between Feb 12 2026 and June 30 2026 11:59 PM ET; no such event has occurred or is credibly signaled in the final 11 days. Recent credible reporting (June 18 2026 Brussels protest) shows ongoing activism without any arrest or detention. With the deadline imminent and zero qualifying incidents post-market open, default resolution is No under the explicit evidence standard (official info or consensus reporting).

Yes priced at 5.9¢ with $71k volume and slight downward drift (1w -0.9pp) on No strengthening; order book implied tight and no thin-liquidity signals. Smart-money whales lean NO at 0.78 confidence with $355 stake vs $50 on Yes, aligned with recommendation and no opposing high-confidence flow. No recent arrests or catalysts in last 72h news, consistent with near-certain No outcome in 11 days remaining.