Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Recent web searches confirm no official Hamas announcement committing to disarm by June 30, 2026; instead, Hamas has rejected recent disarmament proposals from the Board of Peace, with deadlines expiring without agreement and threats of resumed Israeli operations. This aligns with the market rules requiring a formal policy announcement from leadership or consensus confirming such a policy, neither of which exists. True probability of Yes is under 10%, making No near-certain (>=90%) and providing a strong edge on buying No at 74¢ with 2.5 months left.

Web searches confirm no official Hamas announcement agreeing to disarm by June 30, 2026; instead, recent reports (April 2026) show rejections, missed deadlines from the Board of Peace, and conditions like Israeli withdrawal unmet. Hamas leadership statements reject disarmament demands amid ongoing tensions, with no credible reporting of an instituted policy. True probability of Yes <20% (No >80%), providing edge on Buy No at 74%; unpredictable politics noted but current evidence strongly favors No per resolution rules.

Current reporting from April 2026 confirms that Hamas has explicitly refused to discuss disarmament until Israel fulfills first-phase obligations of the Trump peace plan, including full withdrawal and reconstruction access. While Hamas has proposed a theoretical three-year timeline for heavy weapons, this is contingent on future conditions and does not meet the market's requirement for a formal policy announcement of an instituted disarmament process by June 30. Given the ongoing war with Iran and the stalled implementation of the 20-point plan, the 26% 'Yes' price is significantly overvalued compared to the near-zero probability of a formal agreement in the next 80 days.