Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Official Scale leaderboard (resolution source) shows top OpenAI GPT model at 44.32% as of latest data, with no variant at/above 50%; third-party claims of higher scores (e.g. 58%) do not match the binding official source. No major OpenAI release is imminent in the final 13 days, and historical progress rates make a sudden jump to 50% implausible. Smart-money Yes positions are tiny and consistent with market-making rather than informed edge.

Official Scale leaderboard (the sole resolution source) shows highest OpenAI GPT entry at 44.32% (gpt-5.4-pro-2026-03-05) as of mid-June 2026 data, with no model at or above 50%. Only 13 days remain until the June 30 11:59 PM ET deadline and no imminent major OpenAI release is indicated. Rules require the listed score on that exact site by the cutoff; absent that, resolves No. Smart-money YES positions are negligible and do not alter the rules-based outcome.

Official Scale leaderboard (resolution source) shows top OpenAI GPT at 44.32% as of latest data, with no new models or major updates expected in the final 13 days; other sites' higher variant scores (e.g. 58%) do not override the binding official metric. Price at 89¢ No reflects low ~11% implied Yes probability consistent with thin remaining upside and $26K volume showing real (if modest) consensus. Smart-money Yes whales hold only $102 total with tiny stakes, consistent with speculative proxies rather than informed flow opposing the thesis.