Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

The official HLE leaderboard (as of mid-June 2026) shows the leading Gemini model at 46.44% with no Gemini (or any model) at or above 50%. No credible evidence or announcements indicate a sudden jump is possible before the June 30 deadline. The market has already closed trading but resolves on the objective leaderboard outcome, which is overwhelmingly likely to be No.

The resolution source (official HLE leaderboard at scale.com/labs) shows the highest Gemini entry at 46.44% (gemini-3.1-pro-preview thinking high); no Gemini model meets or exceeds 50%. The June 30 11:59 PM ET cutoff is 13 days away with no evidence of imminent new submissions or scoring updates that could close the gap. Market rules are strict and literal—no model listed at >=50% by deadline = No. Smart-money NO whale positions align with this outcome.

Order book shows No at 91¢ with Yes drifting sharply lower (1w -11pp, 1m -43.5pp) on $85k volume; official Scale leaderboard confirms top Gemini at 46.44% with <14 days left to June 30 deadline. Smart-money whales (Gohst et al., $1.3k stake, 0.98 confidence) are heavily on No, consistent with the microstructure and price action. No whale opposition or thin-book signals; consensus hold on No is clean.