Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Key actors (US under current admin, Mojtaba Khamenei + IRGC) have demonstrated incentive and capability for contained strikes without regime-change aims; recent Feb–May 2026 pattern of limited acknowledged US/Israeli actions plus rapid succession shows continuity preserved. Overthrow requires high-friction internal collapse or major escalation (ground invasion, broad defections) with zero base-rate precedent in 45+ years and no movement in last 90 days. Consensus Yes at 97.9¢ faces no plausible flip trigger before June 30.

Market rules require (1) qualifying US military action (already met via post-Jan 13 2026 airstrikes acknowledged in consensus reporting) AND (2) regime NOT overthrown by June 30 2026 per the explicit definition (core structures intact via succession and IRGC continuity; no broad consensus of collapse). No resolver updates override this; current status satisfies both prongs with no plausible rule-based flip by deadline. Consensus-priced Yes trade meets certainty bar.

Yes at 97.9¢ with $868K volume, tight implied spread, and 1m price drift +5.1pp shows real consensus being reinforced on healthy flow. Smart-money whales overwhelmingly aligned on Yes (8 profitable holders, $27K+ stake, 0.99 confidence) with negligible opposing activity. No thin-book, stale-price, or whale-contradiction signals; microstructure fully consistent with the high-certainty hold.