Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Multiple credible sources including NYT, NPR, Reuters, Guardian, and CBS confirm the DOJ dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell on April 24-25, 2026, without filing charges. No evidence of any indictment or charges exists as of April 28, and reopening seems improbable given the official closure. At 98% No pricing with two months left, this is a safe consensus hold with P(No) near 100%, meeting all resolution criteria.

Multiple credible sources confirm the DOJ closed its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell on April 24-25, 2026, with no charges or indictment announced. Given the market's resolution criteria requiring formal federal charges by June 30, 2026, and the negligible likelihood of new charges post-closure, No is near-certain (P>=99%) to resolve, validating the 2% edge on buying No at 98%. This aligns with consensus pricing (98% No) and poses minimal risk over the remaining ~2 months.

Multiple credible sources (NYT, NPR, Reuters, Guardian, etc.) confirm the DOJ dropped its criminal investigation into Jerome Powell on April 24-25, 2026, with no charges or indictment announced as of April 28. The market requires formal federal charges by June 30, 2026, and with the probe closed (transferred to non-criminal IG review), new charges are extremely unlikely in the remaining ~2 months, making 'No' near-certain (P>=99%) per resolution rules prioritizing official sources or consensus reporting. At 98% No, this rides strong consensus with verifiable evidence, yielding a safe ~2% edge over short timeframe.