Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Díaz-Canel remains firmly in power with no internal moves toward removal; he and the party have repeatedly rejected resignation demands in recent months while pursuing economic reforms instead. Cuban one-party continuity and base rates make any leadership change in the final 13 days vanishingly unlikely absent a sudden internal coup or announcement, neither of which shows any behavioral signal. Low-friction announcement risk exists but is not credible here given aligned incentives for the regime to hold firm through the deadline.

Rules require Yes only if Díaz-Canel ceases to be President (or is detained/permanently prevented) by June 30 ET, with resolution via official Cuban sources or credible consensus reporting. All recent reporting (through June 16) confirms he remains incumbent, has announced reforms, rejected resignation demands, and faces no internal moves toward removal. With 13 days left and zero credible signals of change, No is the unambiguous outcome.

Market at 94% No with $1M+ volume and recent price action showing Yes drifting lower (-15pp 1m, -2pp 1w) on healthy flow; smart-money whales net lean No (higher-stake profitable addresses on No side). No credible signals of removal in final 13 days per latest reporting (Díaz-Canel actively announcing reforms June 14-16 while still incumbent). Consensus hold microstructure is clean and aligned with thesis.