Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Opposition (KMT+TPP) controls <76 votes in 113-seat LY and their May 19 motion failed 56-50 with no further votes or procedural paths scheduled before June 30; incentives and recent behavior show no realistic path to the required supermajority. Base rate of successful presidential impeachment motions in Taiwan is near-zero under divided government. Consensus No (98%+) has no actor with both incentive and capability to flip the outcome in the remaining window.

Rules require only Legislative Yuan approval of impeachment motion by 11:59 PM ET June 30 (primary source: official TW gov info or credible consensus). May 19 motion failed 56-50 (need 76/113); opposition lacks supermajority and no further votes scheduled per enrichment. No RESOLVER UPDATE overrides this; tiny smart-money Yes stake is negligible market-maker noise. Analyst's Buy No side meets >90% certainty bar with no plausible rule-based flip by deadline.

Consensus hold on No at 98.1% with $1.33M volume, tight implied spreads, and stable 1m price action (-0.9pp) shows real liquidity and no aggressive flow against it. The May 19 vote failure (56-50) is already priced in with no new procedural paths before deadline. Negligible smart-money stake ($2 on Yes) does not contradict; microstructure fully supports riding the 98%+ consensus to resolution.