Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?

Zelensky and senior Ukrainian military/security leadership have zero incentive to stage or permit a coup attempt in the next 5 weeks; martial law and unified wartime command structures remain intact with no elite defections or unrest reported in the last 90 days. Base rates for coups against a sitting wartime president with strong domestic control are near zero, and no procedural or capability pathway exists for such an event before June 30. Smart-money whales correctly lean No; this is a high-certainty consensus hold.

Rules require a qualifying coup attempt (coordinated state/military effort to seize power) with consensus of credible independent reporting explicitly characterizing it as such; foiled plots without execution or wide characterization do not count. No such event has occurred or been reported since market open (Dec 2025), with searches confirming zero qualifying incidents through May 2026. With ~5 weeks remaining and no signals of instability, no plausible rule-based path exists for Yes resolution, so Buy No is unambiguously supported.