EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?

Key decision-makers (Macron, Starmer, EU/NATO leaders) have shown only contingent declarations of intent since Jan 2026, explicitly tied to a future ceasefire that has not materialized; their incentives favor planning rhetoric over binding troop commitments that risk escalation without US cover. No procedural steps (formal bilateral agreements or policy finalization) can complete in the 41-day window, and recent 30-90 day behavior remains stalled in the 'reassurance force' discussion phase with zero qualifying announcements. Base rate of sudden non-contingent formal troop pledges by EU/NATO states in similar short timelines is near zero.

Rules require an official announcement of troops as part of a formalized policy (formal agreement or equivalent) by 11:59 PM ET June 30 2026; contingent statements of intent or post-ceasefire plans explicitly excluded. No such announcement has occurred or is scheduled in the 41-day window per current credible reporting, and primary sources (NATO/EU/member states) show only ongoing coalition discussions without formal commitment. Consensus-priced No (98¢) faces no plausible rule-based flip before deadline, satisfying certainty bar for Buy No.